News Desk
This widelensreport is based on a close study of the “Global Foresight 2025” survey report, prepared by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. www.atlanticcouncil.org.
NEW DELHI — As the world braces for a decade of upheaval and opportunity, India stands at a pivotal crossroads, according to the Atlantic Council’s Global Foresight 2025 survey, released last month by its Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
Drawing on the perspectives of over 350 global strategists surveyed in late 2024, the report paints a picture of a multipolar, climate-challenged, and tech-driven world—one where India’s ambitions as an economic powerhouse and democratic giant will be tested. While the survey does not spotlight India in isolation, its five key findings resonate deeply with the subcontinent’s current trajectory and policy priorities, offering both warnings and openings for New Delhi to navigate the next decade.
A World on the Brink: Geopolitical Risks and India’s Nuclear Neighborhood
The survey’s starkest warning is its assessment of geopolitical instability: 48 percent of respondents believe a world war could erupt within 10 years, with nearly two-thirds of those anticipating nuclear weapon use. For India, this is not abstract. Tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh remain unresolved since the 2020 Galwan clash, while Pakistan’s provocations in Kashmir persist. As a nuclear-armed state, India’s strategic calculus is complicated by its volatile neighborhood and its role in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, particularly through the Quad alliance with Japan, Australia, and the United States.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has leaned into a doctrine of muscular deterrence—evident in its $8.5 billion defense budget hike for 2025—while maintaining “strategic autonomy,” a refusal to fully align with any superpower. Yet, the survey’s “period of maximum danger” over the next one to three years suggests India must bolster its diplomatic agility.
“The risk of escalation is real,” said one surveyed strategist, reflecting a broader sentiment that regional flashpoints could spiral. India’s recent push for indigenous defense manufacturing, like the Tejas fighter jet, aligns with this urgency, but analysts warn that New Delhi must also deepen ties with allies to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness.
Climate Change: India’s Dual Burden
Climate change emerges as the survey’s top threat to global prosperity, with 50 percent of respondents predicting increased international cooperation to address it. India, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter yet among the most climate-vulnerable nations, embodies this duality.
Last summer’s deadly heatwaves killed dozens, and erratic monsoons threaten its $3 trillion agrarian economy. The Modi administration’s pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 and its leadership in the International Solar Alliance signal intent, but execution lags—coal still powers 70 percent of India’s electricity.
The survey’s optimism about cooperation offers India a chance to lead. “We’re seeing a shift where developing nations like India could drive green innovation,” noted Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council, in the report’s foreword. Yet, India must be mindful of funding gaps—its $100 billion annual climate finance demand far exceeds current inflows—and the risk of being sidelined in a Western-dominated green agenda. Scaling up renewables while protecting rural livelihoods will be a tightrope walk.
AI as Opportunity: India’s Tech Leap
A brighter spot emerges with artificial intelligence, where 58 percent of respondents foresee a positive global impact.
India’s tech ecosystem—home to 100 unicorns and a $250 billion IT industry—positions it to ride this wave. The government’s “India AI Mission,” launched in 2024 with $1.2 billion, aims to harness AI for health, education, and agriculture, reflecting the survey’s view of technology as a disruptor for good. Bengaluru’s startups are already piloting AI-driven crop monitoring, a boon for India’s 120 million farmers.
But the survey hints at a catch: unequal access could widen divides. India’s digital literacy gap—only 38 percent of its 1.4 billion people are internet-savvy—risks leaving rural populations behind. New Delhi must prioritize education and infrastructure, lest AI becomes a privilege of the urban elite.
Democracy’s Retreat: India’s Test
The survey’s pessimism about democracy’s global decline—coupled with a shift to a multipolar world—strikes at India’s identity as the world’s largest democracy. Respondents see multilateral institutions weakening, a trend that challenges India’s reliance on forums like the United Nations to amplify its voice.
India’s foreign policy, balancing ties with Russia, the U.S., and the Global South, mirrors the multipolar shift. Yet, the survey suggests this fluidity could leave India isolated if it overplays strategic autonomy. Strengthening democratic institutions and regional alliances, like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, will be critical to avoid being a lone pole in a fracturing world.
Snow Leopards: India’s Hidden Risks
Finally, the survey identifies six “snow leopards”—under-the-radar issues with outsized impact. While specifics remain vague in public summaries, India’s unique challenges fit the mold: a youth bulge (65 percent under 35) facing job scarcity, water stress projected to hit crisis levels by 2030, and rising religious tensions that could destabilize social cohesion.
India’s policies—like the $500 billion infrastructure push or the National Water Mission—aim to address some of these, but scale and speed are lacking. The survey urges foresight, a call India must heed by investing in jobs, resilience, and inclusivity before these leopards pounce.
The Road Ahead
The Global Foresight 2025 survey offers no easy answers, but for India, it underscores a moment of reckoning. New Delhi’s blend of ambition and caution—evident in its G20 presidency and vaccine diplomacy—has earned it global clout. Yet, the next decade demands more: a nimble defense posture, a greener economy, a tech-inclusive society, a robust democracy, and vigilance against unseen shocks. As the world splinters and realigns, India’s choices will not just shape its 1.4 billion people but ripple across a multipolar globe. The strategists have spoken; now it’s India’s turn to act.
