News Desk
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 summit this week was more than a routine diplomatic encounter. It was widely read as a reset in relations between two countries whose ties have been strained by years of mistrust, particularly over the issue of Khalistani activism in Canada.
Even as the two leaders exchanged handshakes and spoke of cooperation, thousands of Sikh diaspora members lined up in Ottawa to cast ballots in an unofficial referendum for Khalistan, a proposed independent Sikh state. The vote, organized by the secessionist group Sikhs for Justice, was the seventh such exercise in Canada since 2022. Organizers claimed more than 50,000 participants, underscoring the persistence of a movement that India regards as a direct threat to its sovereignty.
Canadian officials have stressed that the referendum carries no legal weight, describing it as an exercise in free speech. But for New Delhi, the symbolism is dangerous. Indian officials argue that such events abroad embolden separatist narratives at home, reviving memories of Punjab’s violent insurgency in the 1980s. The timing of the Ottawa referendum, coinciding with PM Modi’s G20 diplomacy, was seen in New Delhi as a deliberate provocation.
Canada’s intelligence service, CSIS, has added urgency to the debate. In its latest report, the agency described Khalistani extremists as a national security threat, noting that while no attacks occurred on Canadian soil in 2024, activists continue to fundraise and plan violent activities abroad. The designation marked a significant shift in tone, aligning Ottawa more closely with India’s longstanding concerns.
The recalibration comes after years of criticism directed at former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His government was accused of tolerating Khalistani activism for domestic political gain, particularly through reliance on the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh. That dynamic collapsed in the 2025 elections, when the NDP suffered heavy losses, clearing space for Carney to chart a different course.
For India, the stakes are existential. Officials in New Delhi argue that diaspora activism abroad is not merely symbolic but a direct challenge to national unity. The Khalistan movement, they say, threatens to reopen wounds from a period of separatist violence that claimed thousands of lives. PM Modi’s government has pressed Ottawa to take stronger action, framing the issue as one of sovereignty rather than free speech.
The G20 summit itself offered India a measure of reassurance. The final declaration stated that “the alteration of borders of sovereign states by force or external pressure is unacceptable,” language that Indian officials quickly seized upon as a rebuke to separatist campaigns abroad. For Canada, the statement was a reminder that diaspora politics cannot be allowed to undermine international commitments.
At the same time, the summit underscored a new economic dimension. India and Canada agreed to resume negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement, formally called the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with the goal of doubling trade to $50 billion by 2030. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal described the pact as a “demonstration of trust” between the two countries, highlighting opportunities in critical minerals, clean energy, and nuclear cooperation. For Carney, diversifying Canada’s trade beyond the United States is a strategic priority; for PM Modi, deepening ties with Ottawa is a way to anchor economic cooperation alongside political reassurance.
PM Carney now faces a delicate balancing act. His overtures to PM Modi signal a desire to rebuild trust, but the persistence of diaspora referendums shows that the challenge is far from resolved. Canada must protect freedom of expression at home while preventing extremist movements from destabilizing relations with a key partner abroad. For both Ottawa and New Delhi, the stakes are high — and the path forward uncertain.
